This chapter includes both judgment and salvation. God would judge the shepherds, that is, the former kings of Judah. They failed to care for their flock, meaning the people of Judah.
The Lord would also judge the fattened sheep. These were the strong and selfish people who harmed others. Yet God would act as a good shepherd. He would care for the rest of the flock and provide for them.
The image of the shepherd shows both the strength and kindness of God's actions with His people. In the ancient Near East, a shepherd was a common symbol for a king. People saw the earthly king as a representative of the divine shepherd who appointed him.
Shepherds had to protect their flocks from wild animals like lions and bears. They also needed to know their sheep by name and gently lead them to good pasture and calm waters. They faced cold, heat, wind, rain, and snow while caring for their flocks.
Good kings who led their people wisely and strongly were like shepherds. The New Testament uses the same image to describe pastors and elders, who should oversee their flock without being domineering (1 Peter 5:2–4). Jesus perfectly combines strength and kindness as the “great Shepherd of the sheep” (Hebrews 13:20).